Role Of The Jet Stream Makes Summer Weather Hard To Forecast

Role Of The Jet Stream Makes Summer Weather Hard To Forecast

Scientists say recent work to unravel the mysteries of the Atlantic jet stream could pay off with better long-term forecasts of summer weather.

The strength of the jet stream—a ribbon of very strong winds caused by the temperature difference between tropical and polar air masses—plays a big role in summer weather in the UK and northwest Europe.

A northward shift in the Atlantic jet stream tends to direct low-pressure systems northwards and away from the UK, leading to warm and dry weather during summer. But, if the summer jet slips southwards it can lead to the jet shifting the low-pressure systems directly over the UK, causing miserable weather.

The big question is “why does the jet stream shift?”

A new study, led by PhD student Richard Hall and Professor Edward Hanna from the University of Sheffield, suggests that up to 35 percent of this variability may be predictable—a significant advance which may help in the development of seasonal forecasting models.

“There is nothing people in the UK like to discuss more than the weather. This is because it can fluctuate so drastically—we can be basking in high temperatures and sunshine one week only to be struck by heavy downpours and strong winds the next,” says Hall.

“Our study will help forecasters to predict further into the future, giving a clearer picture of the weather to come.”


 Get The Latest From InnerSelf


The findings suggest the latitude of the Atlantic jet stream in summer is influenced by several factors, including sea surface temperatures, solar variability, and the extent of Arctic sea-ice. This suggests a potential long-term memory and predictability in the climate system.

“Working with the Met Office, we were able to look at the different factors which may influence the jet stream, which paves the way for improvements in long-term forecasting,” says Hanna, a professor of climate change.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, says that while scientists have made inroads into long-range forecasts for winter, “we are still limited to shorter-range weather forecasts in summer. Studies like this help to identify ways to break into the long-range summer forecast problem.”

The study appears in the journal Climate Dynamics.

Source: University of Sheffield

Related Books

{amazonWS:searchindex=Books;keywords=jet stream;maxresults=2}

enafarzh-CNzh-TWnltlfifrdehiiditjakomsnofaptruessvtrvi

follow InnerSelf on

facebook-icontwitter-iconrss-icon

 Get The Latest By Email

{emailcloak=off}

FROM THE EDITORS

The Day Of Reckoning Has Come For The GOP
by Robert Jennings, InnerSelf.com
The Republican party is no longer a pro-America political party. It is an illegitimate pseudo-political party full of radicals and reactionaries whose stated goal is to disrupt, destabilize, and…
Why Donald Trump Could Be History's Biggest Loser
by Robert Jennings, InnerSelf.com
Updated July 2, 20020 - This whole coronavirus pandemic is costing a fortune, maybe 2 or 3 or 4 fortunes, all of unknown size. Oh yeah, and, hundreds of thousands, maybe a million, of people will die…
Blue-Eyes vs Brown Eyes: How Racism is Taught
by Marie T. Russell, InnerSelf
In this 1992 Oprah Show episode, award-winning anti-racism activist and educator Jane Elliott taught the audience a tough lesson about racism by demonstrating just how easy it is to learn prejudice.
A Change Is Gonna Come...
by Marie T. Russell, InnerSelf
(May 30, 2020) As I watch the news on the events in Philadephia and other cities in the country, my heart aches for what is transpiring. I know that this is part of the greater change that is taking…
A Song Can Uplift the Heart and Soul
by Marie T. Russell, InnerSelf
I have several ways that I use to clear the darkness from my mind when I find it has crept in. One is gardening, or spending time in nature. The other is silence. Another way is reading. And one that…