Many parts of the world are likely to experience above-average temperatures over the next few months, even without a natural El Niño effect, according to weather experts.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the signal from human-induced climate change was now as powerful as the natural phenomenon, which drives warmer temperatures.
It said there was a 60% chance of a neutral situation without an El Niño or its opposite, La Niña, between March and May.There was a 35% chance of an El Niño developing and 5% for a La Niña.
The El Niño southern oscillation (Enso) is a naturally occurring phenomenon in the Pacific with a warming influence on global temperatures.It is also linked to heavy rain, flooding and drought.
Despite the expected absence of an El Niño, the WMO forecasts there will be above-average sea surface temperatures in many parts of the world, which will lead to higher than normal land temperatures.Climate change would contribute to these conditions, the WMO said.
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