The past few years have seen very severe wildfires in Australia, California, Siberia and around the Mediterranean. Wildfires have become one of the most potent symbols of the threats posed by global warming, and images of fire are widely used to illustrate climate change news stories.
People in the UK don’t often think of wildfires: it’s widely perceived that they occur in hot, dry places. But the wildfire danger in the UK is real. While the vast majority are small, several fires in recent years have threatened houses and infrastructure. Fires have burned through moorland and forests, and even passed through an onshore wind farm in Scotland. Although actual damage to property and harm to people has so far been limited, dealing with wildfires costs fire and rescue services up to £55 million per year.
Wildfires in the UK typically occur on moorland or heathland, and are almost always the result of some human action, sometimes deliberate but more usually accidental or inadvertent. The initial spark is unpredictable, but whether a spark leads to a wildfire depends on how much dry material is available to burn, and whether it is sufficiently windy for fire to spread. While we cannot say that climate change will alter the chance of getting a spark, we can be more confident that the conditions conducive to fire are likely to change into the future. Climate change will increase fire danger.
By how much? Colleagues and I recently estimated this by combining our version of the fire danger model used by the Met Office with the latest climate projections. The fire danger model indexes danger using temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind and evaporation to estimate how much dry material is available to burn and whether a fire will spread. It is based on an approach used in Canada, and a similar model is used to monitor fire danger in New Zealand and across Europe.
Using this model, we then calculated the level of fire danger up to the year 2100 in a low emissions scenario where climate change was relatively modest, and in a high emissions scenario with more extreme change.
The numbers vary with indicator, but in general we predict there will be large increases in fire danger across the UK. For example, in south east England there are currently around 20 days per year on average with “very high” fire danger, and with high emissions this rises to more than 50 days by the 2050s and around 90 days by the 2080s. In north west England, there are around five “very high” danger days per year, and this would increase to around ten and 30 by the 2050s and 2080s respectively.
The fire danger season is also likely to grow longer. Most of the increase is due to higher temperatures drying out surface material, but lower humidity also increases fire danger along with reductions in summer rainfall. Where and when fires occur in practice – and therefore how fire risk changes in different places – will depend on where and when fires are started. However, a warmer and drier climate means fire danger increases everywhere.
While the precise amount of danger and risk will depend on future emissions, our research implies that greater attention needs to be given to the danger of wildfires. That means factoring them into emergency planning and the regulations that guide land use, and in the development of guidelines for activities such as access to moorland or controlled land management burns that may inadvertently trigger fires. The UK won’t turn into Australia or California overnight, but it’s time to prepare for the worst.
About The Author
Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate Change Science, Director of the Walker Institute, University of Reading
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Related Books
Life After Carbon: The Next Global Transformation of Cities
by Peter Plastrik , John Cleveland
The future of our cities is not what it used to be. The modern-city model that took hold globally in the twentieth century has outlived its usefulness. It cannot solve the problems it helped to create—especially global warming. Fortunately, a new model for urban development is emerging in cities to aggressively tackle the realities of climate change. It transforms the way cities design and use physical space, generate economic wealth, consume and dispose of resources, exploit and sustain the natural ecosystems, and prepare for the future. Available On Amazon
The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History
by Elizabeth Kolbert
Over the last half-billion years, there have been Five mass extinctions, when the diversity of life on earth suddenly and dramatically contracted. Scientists around the world are currently monitoring the sixth extinction, predicted to be the most devastating extinction event since the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs. This time around, the cataclysm is us. In prose that is at once frank, entertaining, and deeply informed, New Yorker writer Elizabeth Kolbert tells us why and how human beings have altered life on the planet in a way no species has before. Interweaving research in half a dozen disciplines, descriptions of the fascinating species that have already been lost, and the history of extinction as a concept, Kolbert provides a moving and comprehensive account of the disappearances occurring before our very eyes. She shows that the sixth extinction is likely to be mankind's most lasting legacy, compelling us to rethink the fundamental question of what it means to be human. Available On Amazon
Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats
by Gwynne Dyer
Waves of climate refugees. Dozens of failed states. All-out war. From one of the world’s great geopolitical analysts comes a terrifying glimpse of the strategic realities of the near future, when climate change drives the world’s powers towards the cut-throat politics of survival. Prescient and unflinching, Climate Wars will be one of the most important books of the coming years. Read it and find out what we’re heading for. Available On Amazon
From The Publisher:
Purchases on Amazon go to defray the cost of bringing you InnerSelf.comelf.com, MightyNatural.com, and ClimateImpactNews.com at no cost and without advertisers that track your browsing habits. Even if you click on a link but don't buy these selected products, anything else you buy in that same visit on Amazon pays us a small commission. There is no additional cost to you, so please contribute to the effort. You can also use this link to use to Amazon at any time so you can help support our efforts.
