The total number of species that climate change threatens with extinction is considerably higher than previous models have predicted, according to new research.
To predict the fate of species, ecologists use climatic models that consider individual species in isolation. This type of model, however, overlooks the fact that species are part of a giant network of mutual dependencies: For example, plants need insects to disperse their pollen and, in turn, insects depend on plants for food.
These types of mutually beneficial interactions have been very important in generating the diversity of life on Earth. But the interaction also has a negative knock-on effect when the extinction of one species causes other species that are dependent on it to also die out, an effect called co-extinction.
“Some species with a very low likelihood of climate-related extinction according to the traditional model are at high risk of extinction due to their dependencies.”
Evolutionary biologists have now quantified how much more of an impact climate change has on biodiversity when these mutual dependencies between the species are taken into account. To this end, the researcher team analyzed the networks between flowering plants and their insect pollinators in seven different regions of Europe.
First author Jordi Bascompte, a professor in the evolutionary biology and environmental studies department at the University of Zurich, gives a specific example to illustrate the results of the study: “In one of the networks situated in southern Spain, the sage-leaved rock rose has a 52 percent predicted probability of extinction caused by climate change in 2080. Should this happen, one of its pollinators, the small carpenter bee, would face a risk of co-extinction as a consequence of losing one of the resources it depends upon. Because the small carpenter bee also pollinates the myrtle, the latter is also under threat of extinction.”
And so, while the predicted extinction risk of the myrtle considered in isolation is 38 percent, the risk rises to around 62 percent when taking into account the network of interactions.
“If the interactions of individual species are also considered, the total number of species threatened with extinction rises,” summarizes Bascompte.
“Some species with a very low likelihood of climate-related extinction according to the traditional model are at high risk of extinction due to their dependencies.”
The authors also observed that the role of co-extinctions in increasing the pool of species being eradicated could be particularly high in Mediterranean communities. As an example, in a community in Greece, the total number of plant species predicted to disappear locally by 2080 could be as high as between two and three times the amount expected when considering species in isolation.
The researchers point to two reasons for this: First, climate change has more strongly affected mediterranean regions have been more strongly affected by than central and northern Europe. Second, the southern European regions are home to species with narrower distribution ranges, which makes them more susceptible to extinction than those broadly distributed. With such a high fraction of species and their interactions being driven extinct, the remaining network is more fragile and therefore prone to co-extinction cascades.
Source: University of Zurich
Related Books
Life After Carbon: The Next Global Transformation of Cities
by Peter Plastrik , John Cleveland
The future of our cities is not what it used to be. The modern-city model that took hold globally in the twentieth century has outlived its usefulness. It cannot solve the problems it helped to create—especially global warming. Fortunately, a new model for urban development is emerging in cities to aggressively tackle the realities of climate change. It transforms the way cities design and use physical space, generate economic wealth, consume and dispose of resources, exploit and sustain the natural ecosystems, and prepare for the future. Available On Amazon
The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History
by Elizabeth Kolbert
Over the last half-billion years, there have been Five mass extinctions, when the diversity of life on earth suddenly and dramatically contracted. Scientists around the world are currently monitoring the sixth extinction, predicted to be the most devastating extinction event since the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs. This time around, the cataclysm is us. In prose that is at once frank, entertaining, and deeply informed, New Yorker writer Elizabeth Kolbert tells us why and how human beings have altered life on the planet in a way no species has before. Interweaving research in half a dozen disciplines, descriptions of the fascinating species that have already been lost, and the history of extinction as a concept, Kolbert provides a moving and comprehensive account of the disappearances occurring before our very eyes. She shows that the sixth extinction is likely to be mankind's most lasting legacy, compelling us to rethink the fundamental question of what it means to be human. Available On Amazon
Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats
by Gwynne Dyer
Waves of climate refugees. Dozens of failed states. All-out war. From one of the world’s great geopolitical analysts comes a terrifying glimpse of the strategic realities of the near future, when climate change drives the world’s powers towards the cut-throat politics of survival. Prescient and unflinching, Climate Wars will be one of the most important books of the coming years. Read it and find out what we’re heading for. Available On Amazon
From The Publisher:
Purchases on Amazon go to defray the cost of bringing you InnerSelf.comelf.com, MightyNatural.com, and ClimateImpactNews.com at no cost and without advertisers that track your browsing habits. Even if you click on a link but don't buy these selected products, anything else you buy in that same visit on Amazon pays us a small commission. There is no additional cost to you, so please contribute to the effort. You can also use this link to use to Amazon at any time so you can help support our efforts.
