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Five years after the U.S. backed a disastrous Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, Washington is considering supporting another ill-conceived incursion into the war-torn East African nation — this one by neighboring Kenya. Meanwhile, the U.S. has escalated its drone campaign against Somali insurgents, apparently coordinating the aerial strikes to take advantage of the Kenyan advance.

If Ethiopia’s experience in Somalia is any indicator, the Kenyan invasion could quickly backfire. A popular backlash against the Kenyans could set Somalia back by years, and undermine recent U.S. efforts to craft a strategy for Somalia that balances surgical counter-terrorism and strong support for the embryonic Somali government.

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